Blog:Tory Blues
From Bolton Interweb
Cary Urbagg, Political Correspondent, 8th October 2009
Somewhat like the Lib Dems, the last Tory conference before a General Election is critical to their hopes of becoming the next Government. And, frankly, it has been a very poor show. As someone whose vote is up for grabs, holding out that vote to the Conservatives, willing them to take it, they have been as unconvincing as Labour and the Lib Dems. This was an opportunity to consolidate the Tory lead in the opinion polls and make it unassailable. Instead, many floating voters like myself will still be wondering who they are going to vote for. Indeed whether they will vote at all.
The week started badly with the Tories squabbling over Europe and the Lisbon Treaty, provoking memories of the dying days of the Major Government. Do we want that back? No, even Gordon is preferable and it is pretty hard to find anything Gordon is preferable to. The truth is that if Lisbon is ratified by Poland and the Czech Republic then it stands, and a UK referendum on it is a waste of time and money. Breaking treaties is something not to be taken lightly as the repercussions could be dire for Britain politically and economically. And amongst all the scare-mongering and posturing, the Lisbon Treaty is designed to make the EU work more efficiently so shouldn't the Tories actually welcome it. Reminding voters of Major wasn't a good move. But, arguably worse, the outright refusal of Tory spokespersons to respond to a straight question with a straight answer told the electorate that this bunch are every bit as bad as their Labour opponents. Clearly irritating a BBC Radio 5 audience on Monday was Mark Francois, the suitably French-named Europe spokesman, who repeatedly refused to tell the audience Tory policy on Lisbon and who repeatedly used the phrase "I'll answer the question my way, not yours" when pulled up by the presenter. Usually politicians answer awkward questions "their way" but rarely do they admit to obfuscation in the course of doing so. He got booed and by a few of his own side and a cartload of floating voters too. Not good.
Then economics and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne began to take the limelight. Also not good. Boy George (I thought of it first, before Prince Mandelson), who has never done a real job in the real world, has no qualifications or experience for the job of Chancellor, is rightly seen by Labour as the Tory Party's weakest link. Tim, nice but dim. Very dim, too dim. Very inexperienced, too inexperienced. Boy George will have the task of leading Britain out of recession and back to prosperity should the Tories win the next election. Oh dear. A pay freeze for the public sector is probably sensible, but by next May inflation could once again be running above the line. Increase the retirement age to 66. Great, I'd increase it to 70 for men and woman in five years not fifty. Nonsense is spouted from people who should know better about this causing stress to people in their fifties who might have to work an extra year when their lifespan has, on average, been extended for ten years since their birth. But both are policies you announce and legislate for after an election not before. Before, you open yourself up to attack upon attack when you are in a position of weakness and you give those impacted a chance to say no and vote elsewhere at a time when you actually need their votes. Stupid. Facing Paxman on Newsnight he came over as lacking in confidence, a rabbit in the headlights. I have zero confidence in Boy George and I doubt he convinced anyone else.
On education, the Tories want to create 10,000 more University places. At a time when many people are wondering about the sense of an over-qualified, over-expectant and overdrawn workforce weighed down by student debt. You don't need a degree and the debts associated with it to work in a call centre. We need top class scientists, engineers, medical professionals, not 10,000 more kids who have spent 3 years learning media studies only to discover there are no jobs in that field except for the talented who don't need a degree. Abolish the 50 worst performing universities and cut student numbers by 50% and you might have a viable policy. Spend the money saved on abolishing fees for the brightest science, engineering, and medical candidates. Spend the money on top quality vocational education and create a society of productive trades to rebuild our economy. Michael Gove, one of the worst chinless wonders in the Shadow Cabinet, is not someone I would trust with education either.
There is a tradition of military figures in the UK standing apart from politics. So when General Dannatt, former Chief of the General Staff, head of the British Army, says his appeals for more troops in Afghanistan were blocked by No.10, and No.10 denies it, you have to ask what possible motive could a non-political military chief have for not being completely straight with us, whereas No.10 are notorious for spin and outright lies. Then it turns out he is a likely candidate as a Tory Defence Minister, later amended to "Advisor". So does have a motive for attacking the Government other than as a defender of the Army. Not good. When the Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Grayling, thinks Gordon Brown is recruiting Dannatt and refers to a political gimmick before back-pedaling fast when he realises it is his own leader doing the recruiting, it makes excellent comedy. For the Tory Party, not good, not good at all.
Cameron's speech was sombre, not inspiring. Full of doom and gloom and pain and hardship and austerity and tough times. Cheery it wasn't. It seems like for the last 30 years I have been told: elect us, endure a couple of years of pain, and we'll all be living in Shangri-La. Don't wanna hear it, it's as much bullshit this time as it was in 79, 83, 87, 92, 97, 01, and 05. How about, Mr Cameron, saying actually the NHS is doing really quite well; we'll cut out some of the unnecessary admin but otherwise if it ain't broke we ain't gonna fix it. Actually, the armed forces are doing really quite well; we'll send a few more troops and helicopters to Afghanistan but otherwise if it ain't broke... What are the good things about Britain we should be proud of? What about building on successes whilst Labour have run out of ideas on how to do that? That may have inspired me but if I want doom and gloom I might as well settle for Gordon's doom and gloom. At least Gordon isn't going to throw out his babies with the bath water.
I would love to have been reporting a raft of good news from the Tory conference, of well-thought out and politically astute policies, of a new style of politics that means it matters who you vote for. Sadly none of that happened. The Conservative front bench are, by and large, of inferior quality and patently unqualified for the job of Government. Could I trust this shower to run the country. Absolutely not. The opportunities were there to be bold and radical without alienating the public sector and prospective retirees. There was an opportunity to inspire and it has been lost. And the problem is that if you can't do that in a conference surrounded by friends, you certainly can't do it out there amongst the floating voters.
All is not lost for the Tories. Cameron is actually quite good PM material, and has Hague and Clarke in his inner sanctum. They do have a strong lead in the polls. They are facing a Government on its knees that have already, in their own minds, lost. They can replace Boy George with Old Man Clarke. They can re-balance the Shadow Cabinet with more Pickles and less Eton Mess. Cameron knows that despite their opinion poll leads, as an election nears the incumbent party benefits from a better the devil you know attitude amongst many voters. He knows that the number of seats the Conservatives must win is an enormous hurdle. He knows that Labour complacency and gaffes lost them the 1992 election when they were dead certs. All Major had to do was stand on a wooden box and pretend to be the common man in the street. Brilliant and so easy.
And Cameron knows that Labour are not out of tricks either. There is a budget due before the election and a strong possibility that there is more money in the pot than we are led to believe - the recession wasn't a repeat of the 1930's. There is every possibility that the British economy is in a much better state than you are being told and miracles might suddenly appear just in the nick of time to make Gordon appear the Messiah and deliverer from evil. With the master magician Mandelson really in charge is that impossible as a concept? If you want to know the real position of the British economy compared to others go study the European stock markets and their movements over the last year. Compare the FTSE 100 with the Dax and the CAC 40. The pound has been artificially deflated by unnecessary borrowing, boosting exports and reducing imports, discouraging foreign holidays and encouraging foreign visitors, making overseas investment by Brits expensive and unattractive and foreign investment in the UK cheap and attractive. A lot of public debt is tied up in bank shares and as they recover and get back into profit those shares are valuable assets that can eventually be sold off. House prices are starting to rise again, albeit slowly. The stock market rose by a record percentage in the last quarter. Mark my words, a sudden improvement in the economy will take place in about three months time and it won't be an accident or happy coincidence. Oh, and Labour can always dump Gordon and put someone more voter-friendly in his place just in the nick of time if that's what it takes.
The truth is that the Tory failure to capitalise on their conference opportunities, and the increasingly apparent lack of front-bench talent, means that the next election is now anyone's to win but more probably anyone's to lose. Maybe the best result for everyone is a hung parliament, where parties have to cooperate and reach consensus, a true democracy where the majority of electors are really represented by the Government. A Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition? It might just work.
All three parties have now had their last conference before the election. Who won this round? On balance, probably Labour improved their position and the Lib Dems and Conservatives damaged theirs. It will be interesting to see if the opinion polls reflect that. Personally, after being 75% in the Conservative camp for the last 2 years, I've now moved firmly towards the None Of The Above, Deliberately Spoiled Ballot Party. Cameron's problem now is how many others have moved the same way.
© Evrose, 2011
