Blog:Let's Party
From Bolton Interweb
del.icio.usMyles Aweigh, Election Correspondent, 8th May 2010
Let’s be clear, less than a quarter of eligible voters cast a vote for the Conservative Party. Three quarters either voted against or couldn’t care less. Even on votes cast, only 36% voted Conservative, and 64% positively voted for someone else. They stood in Northern Ireland and their one seat was lost. They stood in Scotland and their one seat is still one seat, right on the borders. They do not represent the nation. The Conservatives did not win anything, certainly nothing in the way of moral authority to assume the levers of power unfettered.
The papers and the Tories are complaining about the concept of a Lib Dem / Labour coalition. They are the losers they say, the people have rejected them they say. In fact 52% of the electorate voted either Lib Dem or Labour. So a Lib Dem / Labour Coalition would have total moral authority based on a majority of votes cast for the first time in peacetime that anyone can recall. Add another 4% for the minor parties likely to support or join such a coalition. But the people did vote against Gordon Brown as PM quite decisively so he must go.
What of a Lib Dem / Conservative coalition. Most commentators say it could not work, and they are right. Policies and fundamental views are too far apart and the Conservatives, fixated on their belief that 36% gives them some form of divine right to govern, would not recognise their Lib Dem partners as equals. They would not get electoral reform so the experiment would be a one-off and we would go back to single party dictatorship of a minority unless the next chance in 35 years time. An indication of the barely concealed contempt with which the Tories view the Lib Dems and their principles was let out of the bag by Liam Fox. "It would seem to me very strange in an election that was dominated by the economy...if the government of the UK was held to ransom over an issue that the voters did not see as their priority." Fox's use of perjorative language such as suggesting that they were being held to ransom over the Lib Dems core belief is telling. There is no reason why a government cannot have multiple priorities including the economy and proper democracy. The Conservatives want Lib Dem votes to put through their policies backed by just over a third of voters; they don't want, and have no intention of allowing, Lib Dem policies to be implemented. Even if Cameron is more progessive, more sensitive, more politically realistic, and less condescending than the contemptuous Dr Fox, he could not hope to keep his right wing in line. Any agreement with the Lib Dems would not and could not last. It is also likely that voters like me, even quite a few activists, will switch to Labour should Clegg fall in with the Tories. And that would devastate them in a likely early second General Election. A double whammy - no PR and a vote collapse.
Lib Dems and Labour are much closer in their basic thinking and outlook on social justice even if they disagree on methods. Saving Labour’s Governmental skin would also mean that Lib Dem policies would stand a real chance of implementation and they would be treated as equals. Most importantly there is a very good chance that electoral reform would materialise and this, beyond anything else, is what the Lib Dems stand for. The idea of an alliance of the progressive centre left of British politics isn't desperation on the part of Labour and the SNP but something genuine that could work extraordinarily well in all our interests.
There is an argument that the Lib Dems should align with no other party but provide supply and confidence to keep a minority government in power. This is no good. At some stage the Lib Dems, if they are serious, have to stand up and be counted in real life not just spout opposition rhetoric. It would be good to know if they are crap or really quite good in government.
Would the Lib Dems suffer a backlash if they “propped up” a failed Labour government? The papers would certainly try to create one but as I said 52% of the people would have voted for that government and it is vitally important that it is a new fresh government that is clearly a Coalition not a Labour government with Lib Dem support. On many issues such a government is likely to get support in concept from Scots and Welsh nationalist parties making it a true national party. There is no reason why it couldn’t run a full term.
A Lib Dem / Labour Coalition would highlight another constitutional anomaly. It is clear that in terms of seats the Tories are the majority party in England with 297 of the 533 English seats. And much of the work of the House of Commons is to do with purely English affairs – health and transport in particular. The Scottish Nationalists do not vote on purely English matters and so the Coalition would inevitably suffer defeats. The answer has to be an English Assembly elected by proportional representation on the same terms as the Scottish and Welsh legislatures. And thus we have, in effect, a federal system of government that would allow a significant contraction in the size of the national parliament. But, in case anyone should think that a Lib Dem / Labour coalition has no moral authority to govern on purely English affairs, together they still polled 52.3% of the English vote compared to the 39.6% for the Tories. Which makes the Conservatives less popular in England than Labour is in Scotland. So don't listen to any nonsense from the Tories on that one.
In the meantime, I would invite the Conservatives to supply the Health and Transport Secretaries in a new Government, allowed to introduce their own policies in these areas that impact only on England. Invite Ken Clarke to be a member of a national economic committee with senior cabinet rank. They would refuse undoubtedly but that would simply show them up as putting party above national interest.
Things might look a bit chaotic at the moment, and this is because our national politicians have no previous experience of putting together stable coalition governments, unlike their Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, and Continental colleagues. The people are not used to this either, they like things to be instant. Give it time, it will come right in the end.
© Evrose, 2010
