Blog:Coalition Wins Oldham East and Saddleworth
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Ray Osunshein, By-Elections Correspondent, 14 January 2011
Coalition wins Oldham East and Saddleworth? Surely not, I must have made a mistake? After all the new MP, Debbie Abrahams, was the Labour candidate. She won it with 14,718 votes, 42.1% of all the votes cast. Labour leader and fraternal backstabber Ed Miliband has said “I think the voters of Oldham East and Saddleworth have sent a very clear message to the government about some of the things they've been doing, the rise in VAT, the trebling of tuition fees and the police cuts." And added "This is the first step in a long journey for Labour. But more importantly, I hope the government will listen to what they've said about those key issues."
Can I have got it so wrong when everyone seems so convinced of a substantial Labour victory? Actually Ed is wrong, as is David Cameron and as is Nick Clegg. Oldham East and Saddleworth was actually won by the Coalition, although I will accept that it will actually be sending a Labour MP to Westminster.
The maths are easy enough. Coalition party candidates scored 15,641 votes, 44.7% of the total. More people voted for the Government and its policies than voted for the Opposition and its lack of policies. The clear message is that despite the pain, the VAT rise, the tuition fees rise, the cuts in the police budgets, and the timing of a Manchester Council cuts announcement, more people support the Government than Labour. Far from a clear Labour victory it is in fact an ominous sign for that party. The question is, Labour is the weakest link but will the others notice? Indeed will Labour notice.
At some point this year or next we will get a referendum on a new form of counting votes, the AV system. The indications are that any referendum will be won by the Yes camp so come 2015 second and third choices will be taken into account. Based on what Labour see as a massive victory, their highest proportion of the vote in this constituency ever, including the 1997 Labour landslide, what would actually happen under an AV system?
You need to make some intelligent assumptions here. BNP and UKIP voters are unlikely to give any preferences to Labour or Lib Dem candidates and a proportion would go to the Tories. But this would not put the Tories into second place so are effectively lost. The original Tory voters are likely to put Lib Dem second to keep Labour out and their Government in power. Greens would probably be split Labour / Lib Dem. End result the Lib Dem comes through and overtakes the Labour candidate at the last moment based on second preferences. Exactly as Ed pipped brother Dave to the Labour leadership. It’s close but that is precisely what the figures show. Had the new AV system been in place on 13th January 2011, the new Oldham East and Saddleworth MP would be a Liberal Democrat. Had the Coalition put up a single joint candidate the new Oldham East and Saddleworth MP would be a Liberal Democrat.
I sincerely hope that Ms Abrahams does the people of Oldham East and Saddleworth proud and becomes a model MP attentive to the needs of her constituents and not another party hack more interested in her personal climb up the slippery pole. For Ed there is a clear message when you discount the spin and the relief at not losing the seat when all the cards are stacked in his favour. The message is that you actually lost. You got the MP but the Government got more votes than you did despite everything. The last time that happened was in 1982. With a new voting system in 2015 you will not keep the MP unless you up your game considerably. Dave and Nick will be privately rubbing their hands in glee.
Onwards to Barnsley Central, the next by-election where Labour will be defending a seat vacated as a result of their MP having been convicted of defrauding the public purse. In May 2010 Labour had over 47% of the vote compared with a combined Con-Dem total of 34%.
© Evrose, 2012
